Election Night 2020

5:00 PM Central Time

Indiana: Trump +8.8% Polling Average, October 29
Trump 49%-Biden 42%, SurveyUSA, October 8, 2020

Kentucky: Trump +15.6% Polling Average October 29, 2020
Trump 52%-Biden 39%, Bluegrass Community and Technical College, October 28, 2020

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6:00 PM Central Time

Florida: Biden +4.5% Polling Average, October 13: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/
79% probability of winning October 27: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/florida
Biden 51%-Trump 40%, Quinnipiac University, October 7, 2020

Georgia: Biden +1.7% Polling Average, October 30: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/georgia/
58% chance of winning, October 30: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/georgia
Biden 51%-Trump 44%, Garin Hart Yang Research Group, October 21, 2020: https://electjon.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Pathway-to-Victory-memo-8.pdf
Biden 51%-Trump 44%, Quinnipiac University, October 14, 2020

South Carolina: Trump +5.2% Polling Average, October 7
Trump 48%-Biden 47%, Quinnipiac University, September 30, 2020

Virginia: Biden +13.4% Polling Average, October 18: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/virginia/
99% chance of winning, October 16: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/virginia
Biden 54%-Trump 39%, Roanoke College, October 15, 2020

Vermont: Biden +36.9% Polling Average, October 31: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/vermont/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/vermont
Biden 62%-Trump 32%, Co/Efficient, October 29, 2020: https://www.scottmilne.org/news/memo-new-polling-in-vermont-lg-race/
Biden 56%-Trump 32%, Braun Research, September 22, 2020
Biden 56%-Trump 32%, Vermont Public Radio, September 16, 2020

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6:30 PM Central Time

North Carolina: Biden +3.3% Polling Average, October 19: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/
75% chance of winning, October 26: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/north-carolina
Biden 51%-Trump 45%, CNN, October 23, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 46%, NBC News, October 25, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 46%, Marist College, October 28, 2020: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7279122-Xyz-NBCNews-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated.html
Biden 50%-Trump 44%, Citizen Data, October 17, 2020: https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-North%20Carolina/Modeling/October/North%20Carolina%20VBM%20Toplines%2010_23_2020.pdf
Biden 51%-Trump 44%, Data For Progress, October 7, 2020

Ohio: Biden +1.4% Polling Average, October 1
Biden 50%-Trump 45%, Fox News Channel, September 24, 2020
Biden 48%-Trump 43%, Quinnipiac University, October 29, 2020

West Virginia: Trump +22.6% Polling average, October 17
Trump 53%-Biden 39%, MetroNews, October 13, 2020
Trump 53%-Biden 39%, Research America, October 6, 2020

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7:00 PM Central Time

Alabama: Trump +14.6% Polling Average, October 1
Trump 48%-Biden 44%, Tyson Group, September 21, 2020

Connecticut: Biden +26% Polling Average, October 16: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/connecticut/
Biden 51%-Trump 26%, Hartford Courant/Sacred Heart University, October 28, 2020

Delaware: Biden +26.8%, October 16: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/delaware/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/delaware
Biden 54%-Trump 33%, University of Delaware, October 5, 2020:

Illinois: Biden +18.7 Polling Average, October 17: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/illinois/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/illinois
Biden 53%-Trump 40%, Victory Research, September 28, 2020: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200928_IL.pdf

Kansas: Trump +6.3% Polling Average, October 19
Trump 49%-45%, Data For Progress, September 24, 2020

Maine: Biden +15.5% Polling Average, September 30: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/maine/  
99% Chance of winning, October 24: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/maine
Biden 62%-Trump 30%, Critical Insights, October 6, 2020: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rgOpdiCIcbEBjnt2pVvQO7ztkbfsNB90/view
Biden 61%, Trump 29%, Critical Insights, October 4, 2020
Biden 55%-Trump 34%, Suffolk University, September 21, 2020: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7214149/MaineCrosstabs.pdf
Biden 54%-Trump 33%, Suffolk University, September 17, 2020
Biden 64%-Trump 32%, Quinnipiac University, September 16, 2020
Biden 59%-Trump 38%, Quinnipiac University, September 14, 2020
Biden 58%-Trump 35%, Hart Research Associates, September 10, 2020: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200910_ME0102.pdf

Maryland: Biden +32.6%, October 16: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/maryland/
99% chance of Winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/maryland
Biden 62%-Trump 30%, OpinionWorks, September 24, 2020: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Opinionworks_MD_Poll_Sept_2020.pdf
Biden 61%-Trump 30%, Goucher College, October 8, 2020
Biden 58%-Trump 33%, Gonzales Research, October 27, 2020: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Gonzales_Maryland_Poll_October_2020.pdf

Massachusetts: Biden +38.6% Polling Average, October 25: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/massachusetts/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/massachusetts
Biden 64%-Trump 29%, University of Massachusetts—Amherst, October 26, 2020

Michigan: Biden +8.9% Polling Average, October 31, 2020; 98% chance of winning, October 30, 2020: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/michigan
Biden 54%-Trump 41%, Kiaer Research, October 28, 2020
Biden 59%-Trump 40%, Swayable, October 26, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 40%, CNN, October 30, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 41%, CNN, October 23, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 40%, Fox News Channel, October 17, 2020

Mississippi: Trump +11.4% Polling Average, October 1
Trump 50%-Biden 40%, Tyson Group, September 21, 2020

Missouri: Trump +5.4% Polling Average, October 12
Trump 49%-Biden 44%, WeAskAmerican, September 8, 2020
Trump 50%-Biden 45%, Remington Research Group, October 29, 2020
Trump 50%-Biden 48%, Garin Hart Yang Research Group, October 7, 2020
Trump 51%-Biden 46%, Remington Research Group, October 3, 2020

New Hampshire: Biden +11.8% Polling Average, October 18: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-hampshire/
98% chance of winning, October 27: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/new-hampshire
Biden 58%-Trump 39%, American Research Group, October 29, 2020
Biden 56%-Trump 42%, Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen, September 29, 2020: https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/29/biden-leads-in-new-hampshire-poll/
Biden 55%-Trump 43%, University of New Hampshire, October 13, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 41%, Saint Anselm College New Hampshire Institute of Politics, October 4, 2020

New Jersey: Biden +22.4% Polling Average, October 30: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-jersey/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/new-jersey
Biden 62%-Trump 38%, Swayable, October 30, 2020
Biden 61%-Trump 37%, Rutgers University—New Brunswick Eagleton Institute of Politics Center for Public Interest Polling, October 29, 2020
Biden 59%-Trump 37%, Rutgers University October 24, 2020
Biden 56%-Trump 34%, DKC Analytics, October 20, 2020: https://www.investorideas.com/news/2020/cannabis/10202New-Jersey-Low-Level-Marijuana-Convictions.asp

North Dakota: Trump +23.4% Polling Average, October 3, 2020

Oklahoma: Trump +20.8% Polling Average, October 18,2020

Pennsylvania: Biden +7.3% Polling Average, October 11: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/
94% chance of winning, October 27, 2020: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/pennsylvania
Biden 53%-Trump 43%, CNN, October 21, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 41%, Quinnipiac University, October 7, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 43%, Quinnipiac University, October 5, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 42%, Monmouth University, October 6, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 43%, Monmouth University, October 4, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 42%, Hart Research Associates, September 25, 2020
Biden, 54%-Trump 44%, ABC News/Washington Post, September 29, 2020: https://www.langerresearch.com//wp-content//uploads//1216a32020StateBattlegrounds-PA.pdf

Rhode Island: Biden +34.4% Polling Average, October 25: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/rhode-island/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/rhode-island

South Dakota: Trump +12.4%, October 27
Trump 51%-Biden 40%, Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, October 25, 2020

Tennessee: Trump +11.9% Polling Average, October 1, 2020

Texas:
Biden 49%-Trump 45%, Citizen Data, October 29, 2020: https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Corrected%20Texas%20VBM%20Toplines%2010_29_20.pdf
Biden 48%-Trump 44%, Tyson Group, September 21, 2020: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200921_TX.pdf
Biden 48%-Trump 45%, Data For Progress, September 4, 2020
Biden 48%-Trump 45%, Dallas Morning News/University of Texas—Tyler, October 25, 2020
Biden 50%-Trump 48%, Public Policy Polling, October 28, 2020
Biden 47%-Trump 45%, Data For Progress, October 7, 2020
Biden 46%-Trump 44%, University of Texas—Tyler, October 25, 2020
Biden 50%-Trump 49%, Public Policy Polling, October 8, 2020: https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResults1.pdf
Biden 49%-Trump 48%, Data For Progress, October 26, 2020
Biden 48%-Trump 47%, Morning Consult, October 22, 2020
Biden 47%,-Trump 46%, Data for Progress, October 19, 2020
Biden 44%-Trump 43%, University of Texas—Tyler: https://www.scribd.com/document/475037655/Aug28-Sept2-DMN-UTTyler-2020-Poll-Codebook-4

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7:30 PM Central Time

Arkansas: Trump +2.6% Polling Average, October 1, 2020

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8:00 PM Central Time

Arizona: Biden +5.3% Polling Average, September 11: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/
77% Chance of Winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/arizona
Biden 53%-Trump 42%, Hart Research Associates, September 25, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 42%, Predictive Insights, September 14, 2020: https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200908%20AZPOP/AZPOP%20Presidential%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden 49%-Trump 39%, Fox News Channel, September 2, 2020

Colorado: Biden +13.9% Polling Average, October 28: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/colorado/
99% Chance of Winning, October 26: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/colorado
Biden 54%-Trump 39%, Keating Research, October 15, 2020: http://onsightpublicaffairs.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/KOM20Colorado20Poll20-20October20202020-20Topline20Results20-20For20Release20-2010-15-2020.pdf
Biden 55%-Trump 38%, RBI Strategies and Research, October 18, 2020
Biden 55%-Trump 39%, Morning Consult, October 22, 2020

Louisiana: Trump +10.3% Polling Average, October 1
Trump 54%, Biden 36%, Trafalgar Group, October 6, 2020
Trump 48%-Biden 42%, Tyson Group, September 21, 2020

Minnesota: Biden +9.3% Polling Average, October 6: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/
99% chance of winning, October 27: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/minnesota
Biden 57%-Trump 40%, ABC News/Washington Post, September 16, 2020
Biden 57%-Trump 41%, ABC News/Washington Post, September 13, 2020: https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a12020StateBattlegrounds-WIMN.pdf
Biden 55%-Trump 38%, Morning Consult, September 15, 2020

Biden 54%-Trump 39%, Saint Cloud State University, October 29, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 39%, Gravis Marketing, October 27, 2020: https://www.scribd.com/document/481836479/Minnesota-October-26-2020-v2
Biden 54%-Trump 43%, Public Policy Polling, October 30, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 41%, Blinder Research, October 14, 2020: https://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2020/10/14/heartland-poll-biden-leads-in-midwest-2/
Biden 53%-Trump 43%, Civiqs, October 21, 2020

Nebraska:
Biden 53%-Trump 42%, FM3 Research, October 8, 2020: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520263-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-tight-house-race-in-key-nebraska-district

New Mexico: Biden +14% Polling Average, October 12: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-mexico/
99% chance of winning, October 9: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/new-mexico
Biden 54%-Trump 39%, Albuquerque Journal, September 6, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 39%, Public Policy Polling, October 6, 2020: https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2020/10/06/biden-with-leads-trump-by-14-points-in-nm/

New York: Biden +31.1% Polling Average, October 17: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-york/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/new-york
Biden 65%-Trump 33%, Swayable, October 30, 2020
Biden 61%-Trump 29%, Siena College Research Institute, September 29, 2020: https://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/a5a33ee6-4149-4124-9959-f7b0dbaf4514.pdf

Wisconsin: Biden +8.6%, October 29: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/
97% chance of winning, October 27: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/wisconsin
Biden 57%-Trump 40%, ABC News/Washington Post, October 28, 2020: https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a52020StateBattlegrounds-MIWI.pdf
Biden 56%-Trump 39%, ABC News Washington Post, October 25, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 40%, Opinum, September 2, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 42%, Morning Consult, October 22, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 43%, Gravis Marketing, October 24, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 41%, New York Times/Siena College, October 30, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 41%, CNN, September 15, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 42%, CNN, September 15, 2020
Biden 54%-Trump 44%, Marist College/NBC News, September 24, 2020
Biden 53%-Trump 43%, Reuters, October 27, 2020:
Biden 51%-Trump 41%, New York Times/Siena College, October 12, 2020
Biden 52%-Trump 42%, Morning Consult, September 2, 2020

Wyoming: Trump +32% Polling Average October 31
Trump 59%, Biden 31%, University of Wyoming, October 30, 2020

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9:00 PM Central Time

Idaho: Trump +19.3% Polling Average, October 28

Iowa: Biden +1.6% Polling Average, October 26: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/iowa/
Biden 55% chance of Winning, October 27: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/iowa
Biden 51%-Trump 46%, Monmouth University, October 21, 2020
Biden 50%-Trump 45%, Quinnipiac University, October 7, 2020
Biden 50%-Trump 46%, RABA Research, October 27, 2020: https://who13.com/news/politics/2020-raba-research-poll/biden-extends-lead-over-trump-in-new-nexstar-iowa-2020-raba-research-poll/
Biden 50%-Trump 47%, Monmouth University, October 15, 2020

Montana: Trump +5% Polling Average, October 31
Trump 48%-Biden 44%, Expedition Strategies, September 1, 2020
Trump 50%-Biden 46%, RMG Research, October 24, 2020
Trump 49%-Biden 47%, Public Policy Polling, October 27, 2020

Nevada: Biden +6.9% Polling Average October 1: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/nevada/
92% chance of Winning, October 21, 2020: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/nevada
Biden 52%-Trump 41%, Fox News Channel, September 24, 2020
Biden 50%-Trump 40%, Fox News channel, September 20, 2020

Oregon: Biden +20% Polling Average, October 27: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/oregon/
99% Chance of Winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/oregon

Utah: Trump +10.4% Polling Average

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10:00 PM Central Time

California: Biden +31.6% Polling Average, September 6: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/california/
99% Chance of Winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/california
Biden 67%-Trump 28%, University of California—Berkeley, September 25, 2020
Biden 62%-28%, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, September 27, 2020
Biden 65%-Trump 29%, University of California—Berkeley, October 27, 2020

Washington: Biden +27.8% Polling Average , October 11: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/washington/
99% chance of winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/washington

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11:00 PM Central Time

Alaska: Trump +4% Polling Average, October 1
Trump 47%-Biden 46%, Harstad Strategic Research, September 28, 2020
Trump 49%-Biden 46%, Patinkin Research Strategies, October 18, 2020
Trump 50%-Biden 46%, Alaska Survey Research, October 6, 2020

Hawaii: Biden +30.1% Polling Average, October 7: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/hawaii/
99% Chance of Winning: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/hawaii
Biden 61%-Trump 28%, Honolulu Civil Beat/Hawaii News Now, October 16, 2020

~ by Judgian12365 on October 31, 2020.